Rising Prices, Scarcity of Fish to Affect Poor

Anil Netto

ISP

Oct 3, 2003

PENANG, Malaysia, (IPS) - ''My customers can't afford such expensive fish,'' grumbles the low-income single mother. ''So I usually use cheaper fish in my cooking.''

But even the prices of cheaper fish like 'ikan kembung' or mackerel have soared over the last three decades. ''I remember back in the 1970s, 'ikan kembung' used to cost 20 sen per kati (9 U.S. cents per kilogramme),'' says a homemaker here who keeps a close tab on prices in the local wet market.

''Now it's more like 1.50-2.60 ringgit per kati (65 cents for 1.14 kilogrammes )'' That's an increase of up to ten times - much more than the rate of price increase of poultry, for instance, over a corresponding period.

These observations appear to be confirmed by a report released Friday by WorldFish Centre, an autonomous, non-profit, international scientific research centre based in Penang.

The report warns that the rising cost of low-value food fish for the poor should be of concern to policymakers. The report was produced in collaboration with the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty.

As global fish consumption rises and wild-caught fish stocks dwindle, more and more aquaculture farms are being set up to meet the increasing demand mainly from developing nations.

Wealthier consumers in China, South-east Asia, India and Latin America are tucking into increasing amounts of fish in line with growing populations, higher incomes, and rapid urbanisation.

Indeed, fish consumption in developing countries will increase by 57 percent, from 62.7 metric tonnes in 1997 to 98.6 million tonnes in 2020. By contrast, consumption in developed nations is expected to grow by only 4 percent.

But as overall demand rises, the supply of fish from rapidly diminishing wild stocks is expected to grow only slowly until 2020. To meet the rising demand, many fishers in developing nations have turned to aquaculture.

China in particular has recorded astonishing growth, accounting for 36 percent of global fish production in 1997. This in turn has fuelled suspicion in some quarters over the accuracy of its reported figures.

The paradox is that the production boom in developing nations, which accounted for 73 percent of global production in 1997, may not translate into gains for the poor. The explosive growth in aquaculture brings along its own concerns and worries.

Developing nations are more likely to become exporters of high-value fish and importers of low-value fish. Increasingly, low-value fish, once a key part of the diet of the poor, is being turned into fish-meal and fish-oil -- to feed higher-value fish grown in aquaculture farms as well as poultry and pigs.

Nearly one-third of the world's wild-caught fish is processed into fish meal and fish oil to be used as feed.

''The poor may substitute away from fish towards meat, with negative nutritional outcomes,'' warns Mark Rosegrant, the director of IFPRI's environment and production technology division.

Apart from depriving the poor of low-value fish, the aquaculture boom may alienate the poor in other ways. New technologies and environmental requirements in aquaculture are likely to favour large-scale, capital intensive operations and exclude landless fish workers and traditional, small-scale fisher folk.

''There is a need for the poor -- producers and processors -- to be part of the value chain,'' asserts Mahfuzuddin Ahmed, the principal social scientist at WorldFish Centre.

Mahfuzuddin and Rosegrant are among five co-authors of a new book 'Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Markets' published by WorldFish Centre and IPFRI.

The book projects that two-thirds of the projected 40 percent growth in global fish production to the year 2020 will come from aquaculture.

Using computer modelling, the authors predict that the real price of high-value finfish like salmon and tuna and crustaceans like crabs and shrimp will rise by 15 percent by 2020. Even the real price of low-value fish like carp and sardines is expected to increase by 6 percent.

The only scenario that would see lower prices by 2020 is one where there are higher levels of aquaculture investment. On the other hand, prices could skyrocket if there is an ''ecological collapse'' that would jeopardise fish supplies in the wild or slower aquaculture expansion. Aquaculture is likely to account for 41 percent of total production by 2020 compared to 31 percent in 1997.

Despite the concerns surrounding aquaculture, Rosegrant contends that higher spending on fish farming is the best way to increase access of the poor to fish. The most effective strategy in improving food security, he says, would be to target aquaculture investment in non-carnivorous species.

But aquaculture also presents a fresh set of problems, such as the accidental spreading of disease and the release of effluents such as fertiliser, undigested feed, and biological waste into surrounding waterways.

Coastal farming, especially shrimp farming, has also destroyed thousands of hectares of mangrove forests that could have preserved eco-systems. What is more, farm fish that escape into the wild could threaten native species or interbreed and change the genetic pool of wild organisms.

Some experts have suggested that biotechnology and genetically altered fish could reduce feed input and waste output. But if genetically altered fish is introduced into aquaculture in the coming years, concerns over escaped species and the contamination of native species are likely to mount.

Aquaculture is a high-risk industry and where local economies become dependent on it, financial vulnerability is high, says a report on the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) website.

''Disease is perhaps the major threat to intensive rearing operations but other problems arising from the genetic integrity of the stock may also be significant,'' said the report. ''Modern aquaculture depends heavily on exchange of genetic material through transfers and introductions, therefore especial surveillance is needed to ensure that risks are minimised.''

All these issues present formidable challenges for policy makers and planners to grapple with in meeting the rising demand for fish. Meanwhile, if current trends continue, the poor, like streetfood vendor Sandra and her customers, will have to contend with even higher fish prices in the years to come. (END/2003)

IPS-Inter Press Service.